Decision-Making and Problem-Solving

Posted on Aug 15, 2024 in Other subjects

Concerns Analysis

Analysis Steps Concerns

  1. List concerns
  2. Separate
  3. Prioritize: Importance, Urgency, Trend.

Focus

  • If the priority status refers to a deviation from a norm or procedure and the cause is unknown, focus on problem formulation.
  • If the priority status indicates some action to take, the steps involve making decisions.
  • If the situation indicates priority problems that might appear during execution or a decision, the process is analysis of potential problems.

Levels of Decision

  1. Strategic Decisions: Made at an institutional level. Guide and direct the behavior of the entity (E) when it expands and changes its position, processes (P), and methods (M). (Between E and the environment)
  2. Administrative Decisions: Made at an intermediate level. Relate the organizational structure and configuration of the entity (E) to resource allocation and distribution.
  3. Operational Decisions: Involve selection and orientation at the operational level assigned to conduct the technical task.

Steps in Decision Making

  1. Problem Identification
  2. Identification of Decision Criteria: Determine what is important for making a decision.
  3. Criteria Weight Assignment: Weighting of criteria.
  4. Develop Alternatives: List viable alternatives without evaluation.
  5. Analysis of Alternatives: Compare each alternative against each criterion, choosing the one with the highest score.
  6. Selection of an Alternative
  7. Implementation: Transmission of the decision to those affected.
  8. Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Decision

Types of Decisions

Scheduled or Routine Decisions: Involve well-structured problems, allowing the manager to avoid dedicating significant time to the decision process. Solutions are routine, with a defined approach to handle them. The stage of developing alternatives is almost nonexistent because, once the problem is defined, its solution is clear and reduced to very few familiar alternatives that have proven successful in the past.

Unscheduled Decisions: Occur when facing an ill-structured or unique problem. There is no well-defined solution, requiring a developed response for the specific case.

Conditions Under Which Decisions Are Made

  • Uncertainty: Not sure of the results or unable to make estimates. The decision-maker has little or no general knowledge to know what might happen in the future. (An alternative is chosen based on limited available information.) This situation requires planning that allows varied and flexible alternatives.
  • Risk: The decision-maker has enough information to estimate the probability of occurrence of certain alternatives or outcomes. Prior experience, opinion, intuition, etc., of each administrator come into play.
  • Certainty: The ideal situation because each alternative can be associated with the results it can produce. There is complete knowledge of the consequences of each alternative.
  • Turbulence: In the three previous conditions, the end objective is always clear. Under turbulent conditions, the objective may be unclear.

Decision-Making Style

Tolerance for ambiguity: Analytical – Conceptual – Directive – Behavioral

Problem Definition

A problem is a deviation from reality, from a norm or standard, whose cause is unknown and of interest. It is therefore essential to define the standard or benchmark to determine deviations. A rule should be:

  1. Realistic: Achievable under current conditions or previously attained.
  2. Measurable: To have a measure of normal operation.
  3. Specific: Identified and described accurately. If it is a personal rule, it must be communicated and understood. No changes or detours.

Method for Analyzing and Solving Problems

There are different ways to approach and solve problems:

  1. Using experience from different cases.
  2. Taking solutions from past problems and implementing them.
  3. Trial and error (a costly and uncertain method)

The problem-solving method looks for changes that might be causing the problem. You can narrow down the problem by defining: what, where, when, what happens to us, and what we will not let pass.

  1. Problem Formulation: Express concisely what equipment/piece/person, etc., is involved, where the defect can be seen, and the observed effect or decline.
  2. Specification (What, Where, and How Much): Done through the questions: What (identity), Where (location), When (location in time), How much (magnitude or expression, etc.).
  3. Differences (Between Is and Is Not): Differential features between what happened and what did not.
  4. Changes (Analysis of It): Changes that could have been made regarding the differences.
  5. Possible Causes: Hypothesize the causes. Link each change to its possible cause.
  6. Try Explaining the Most Probable Cause: Determine if it is reasonable.
  7. Check (Probable Cause): Verify the true cause.
  • Interim actions (buying time until decisions are made)
  • Corrective action
  • Adaptation actions (living with the problem)

Potential Problems

The third type of concern arises when we make a decision or continue with a course of action and want to protect its execution by avoiding problems.