Demographic Transition & Current Trends: Analysis Since 1900
The Demographic Transition: 1900-1975
This period is characterized by a mild decrease in birth rates and a sharp decline in mortality, leading to a high natural increase.
Birth Rate Trends (1900-1975)
The decline in birth rates was not smooth, with alternating periods of decline and recovery. In the 1920s, the birth rate decrease recovered due to economic prosperity. Between 1930 and 1956, the decline resumed. Causes included the 1929 economic crisis, political instability during the Second Republic (1931-1936), the Civil War, and the post-Civil War period (1940-1955), which caused serious economic difficulties, political exile, autarky, and international isolation. All of this prevented normal recovery after the war. The pronatalist policy of Franco and the ban on contraception were not enough to counter these factors.
Between 1956 and 1965, there was a recovery of births (a delayed baby boom) due to post-war economic development after the release from international autarky. Between 1965 and 1975 (the last years of development), family size decreased again. The cause was the consolidation of an industrial and urban way of life with serious housing problems, which reduced the economic value of children.
Mortality Rate Trends (1900-1975)
Death rates decreased sharply and continuously. Causes included an increase in the standard of living, medical and health advances (vaccines, antibiotics, birth clinics, and extension of public health), a fall in infant mortality due to progress in pediatrics and infant feeding, rising life expectancy, and the reduction of infant, maternal, and adult mortality.
Natural Growth
The natural growth during this transition period was high.
The Current Demographic Regime: Since 1975
This period is characterized by low birth and mortality rates, resulting in low natural growth.
Birth Rate Trends (Since 1975)
Birth rates have declined from 1975 to low figures. There are two distinct periods: between 1975 and 1998, there was a sharp decline in births. The causes were economic and socio-cultural changes. The economic situation led to a late age of marriage, thereby shortening the fertile period for women. This was the result of the economic crisis, job insecurity, and the high purchase price and rental costs of housing, which extended the period of staying with parents. Spanish society experienced changes in mentality and values.
Since 1998, the birth rate has experienced a slight recovery due to immigration.
Mortality Rate Trends (Since 1975)
Mortality is maintained at low levels but has increased since 1982 due to the aging of the population. Infectious diseases have decreased in importance, while the “3 Cs” (cardiovascular disease, cancer, and road accidents) have increased. The infant mortality rate is very low and mainly neonatal. Life expectancy has increased due to progress in medicine. There are differences by gender, age, and social status.
- Sex: Women live longer due to biological factors, less healthy habits in men, fewer involvements in wars, and fewer injuries and road accidents.
- Age: More gains are seen in older patients (70-80) compared to young adults (18-35).
- Status: Higher life expectancy is observed for more skilled occupations and more affluent social classes, who experience lower labor-related mortality.
Natural Growth and Territorial Imbalances
Natural growth decreased until 1998 due to low birth rates and then grew slightly due to mortality. There are territorial imbalances in the natural movement of the population. Communities have low birth rates, mortality rates, and natural growth. Differences are due to the different age structures: the degree of youth or aging of the population. This depends in turn on inherited and current causes: traditional differences in birth behavior and differences in economic development and migrations. These causes affect the young population and cause aging in emigration regions and the rejuvenation of immigration regions.
Current causes include new factors of economic development from the immigration crisis and the aliens, which provides a young population and elevation of the birth rate.