Demographic Transition Stages and Global Population Dynamics
Phases of Demographic Transition
Phase 2: Early Expanding
The birth rate remains fairly high because children are still considered a necessity. This phase corresponds to when the United Kingdom industrialized. There is tremendous population growth during this stage.
Phase 3: Late Expanding (Containment, 1880 – Pre-World War I)
This marks the final step towards an urban, industrial society. The death rate continues downhill, reaching approximately current levels due to medical advances like penicillin, improved sanitation, etc. The most significant change is the critical drop in birth rates due to various causes:
- Shift from rural to urban society: People live in cities where children are less of an economic necessity or insurance for the future.
- Limited urban living space: Available space is smaller in urban environments.
- Women in the workforce: Women begin to join the working world in larger numbers.
- Contraception: The use of contraceptive methods becomes more generalized.
Society continues to grow, but at a slower pace.
Phase 4: Low Stationary (New Demographic Regime)
The mortality rate no longer varies much; it is low. Towards the end of this phase, it can increase slightly due to a large elderly population and very high life expectancy. The birth rate continues to drop and may even fall below the death rate, although it can sometimes rise slightly if the economic situation is favorable.
This stage represents a completely post-industrial, urban society. Women are fully incorporated into the workplace. Family structures have changed completely; some families have no children, and the principle of population growth approaches zero. If the birth rate falls below the death rate, the population could even decrease. Consequently, it is suggested that some highly developed countries have entered a fifth phase. One of the most important features of the 4th stage is population aging.
Phase 5: Declining?
A birth rate that continues to decline. Mortality remains higher than the birth rate. As a result, the population could begin to decrease. Countries such as Spain, Germany, Britain, and Italy are considered to be in this phase.
Population Dynamics in Developing Nations
Situation of Developing Countries
Currently, no country is in the first phase. All developing countries are in transition.
Countries in Transition: Phase 2
Countries in the 2nd phase are typically less developed. Examples include:
- Sub-Saharan Africa
- Some areas of Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia.
These countries have very high fertility rates, many exceeding five children per woman. Reducing fertility in these countries is quite difficult; even aid from the United Nations has struggled to effect change. Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi reportedly stated that development was the best contraceptive.
High fertility persists due to economic and social factors:
- Rural economies: Children are needed for labor and serve as insurance for parents’ old age, providing support when they get older.
- Social and religious factors: Having many children can be linked to perceived virility for men. Women may face societal pressure, and contraceptives might be poorly viewed or inaccessible.
Mortality rates could potentially be reduced through campaigns run by developed countries or NGOs. However, despite these efforts, many of these countries face challenges like famine and epidemics caused by poor hygiene, inadequate sanitation, and limited supplies. Consequently, despite advances, child mortality in these countries remains very high, often close to 50 per thousand (‰).
Countries in Transition: Phase 3 (Containment)
Some developing countries have already initiated the third stage. These include:
- Latin American countries
- Most countries in Asia
In most of these nations, birth rates have fallen since the mid-20th century (around the 1950s). This decline is attributed to factors like better education for women, improvements in health services, and, crucially, a delay in the average age of marriage and first childbirth.
In some nations, particularly the Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs), also known in Asia as the Asian Dragons (e.g., Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong), birth rates have successfully lowered alongside economic development.
Special Case: China
China represents a special case due to its adoption of the “one-child policy.” This policy mandated that families could generally have only one child. Through this policy, China significantly reduced its birth rate: from 4.3 children per woman in 1972 down to a level of 1.8 children per woman by the year 2000.
Population Aging in Developed Nations
Case Study: Catalonia’s Population Aging
(Original text provides heading structure but no specific content on the causes for Catalonia.)