Global Stability, Terrorism, and Peace: Key Insights
Fragile States Index: Stability and Pressures
The Fragile States Index is an annual ranking of 178 nations based on their levels of stability and the pressures they face.
Weak and failing states pose a challenge to the international community. In a highly interconnected world, pressures on one fragile state can have serious repercussions not only for that state and its people, but also for its neighbors and other states halfway across the globe. Since the end of the Cold War, a number of states have erupted into mass violence stemming from internal conflict. Some of these crises are ethnic conflicts; some are civil wars; others take on the form of revolutions; and many result in complex humanitarian emergencies.
Global Terrorism Index: Impact and Trends
2016 Global Terrorism Index (GTI)
The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is a comprehensive study analyzing the impact of terrorism for 163 countries, covering 99.7 percent of the world’s population.
Seventy-six countries improved their scores in the 2016 GTI, while 53 countries deteriorated. However, the overall GTI score deteriorated by six percent since last year due to many countries experiencing record levels of terrorism.
The five countries with the highest impact from terrorism as measured by the GTI are Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Syria. These five countries accounted for 72 percent of all deaths from terrorism in 2015.
Deaths from terrorism decreased by ten percent in 2015 to 29,376. This is the first decrease in the number of deaths recorded since 2010.
Iraq and Nigeria had the biggest decreases with 5,556 fewer deaths. This constitutes a 32 percent reduction in these two countries since 2014.
ISIL’s Expanding Reach
ISIL-affiliated groups undertook attacks in 28 countries in 2015, up from 13 countries in 2014. There were 274 known terrorist groups that carried out an attack in 2015, of these 103 groups did not kill anyone.
Twenty-three countries recorded their highest number of deaths from terrorism in 2015. This is six more than the previous high of 17 countries in 2014.
Hydraulic Fracturing: Environmental and Health Risks
Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is used to access oil and gas resources that are locked in non-porous rocks. Methane gas (a greenhouse gas) escapes during the mining process. Poorly treated flowback water has leaked into drinking water. Serious health risks include lung damage and neurological problems.
Counterargument: Fracking’s Potential
Counterargument: Fracking is equal to the total conventional gas discovered in the United States over the past 150 years, and equivalent to about 65 times the current US annual consumption.
Global Peace Index: Regional Analysis
2017 Global Peace Index (GPI)
The overall score for the 2017 Global Peace Index (GPI) improved slightly this year due to gains in six of the nine geographical regions represented. This is the first improvement in global peacefulness recorded since 2014 and does not necessarily indicate a new trend. Of significance is the number of countries that improved, 93, compared to those that deteriorated, 68.
Regional Trends
- North America: The largest average deterioration occurred in the North America region, with deteriorations across all three GPI domains. However, this region only consists of two countries, the United States and Canada. A change in the score of either country can substantially affect the region’s score. This year’s fall was entirely due to the deterioration in the United States’ score.
- Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa: Also deteriorated across all three domains. The deterioration in the Middle East and North Africa was driven by a fall in peacefulness in 11 out of 20 countries. Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the Yemen conflict, in particular, has affected its relationship with neighboring countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, 24 of the 44 countries became less peaceful, with the largest deteriorations occurring in Ethiopia, Burundi, Mali, and Lesotho.
- Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific: Europe remains the most peaceful region, followed by North America, and then Asia-Pacific. These regions have been ranked first, second, and third respectively for the entire history of the GPI.
- Middle East and North Africa: The Middle East and North Africa remains the least peaceful region in the world, a position it has held for the last three years. Five of the world’s ten least peaceful countries are from this region (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya, and Sudan), while only one country (Qatar) is ranked amongst the world’s 50 most peaceful countries.