Population Dynamics and Migration in Spain: Trends and Analysis
1-D Nature of Population Dynamics
The natural growth or decline of a population is the result of births and deaths. Formulas:
Natural growth = births – deaths.
Birth rate = (number of births in 1 year / total population) x 1000.
Fertility rate = (number of births in 1 year / number of women of childbearing age (15 to 49 years)) x 1000.
Synthetic fertility rate = average number of children per woman.
Mortality rate = (number of deaths in 1 year / total population) x 1000.
Infant mortality rate = (number of deaths of children under 1 year / number of births) x 1000.
Life expectancy = sum of the years lived by the population / total population.
2-Population Evolution in Spain
Old demographic regime (until the early twentieth century): Characterized by a very high birth rate due to a predominantly rural economy and society, the lack of effective birth control methods, and the influence of religion. There was also a very high and fluctuating mortality rate due to a low standard of living (poor diet), poor health and hygiene conditions, epidemics, and wars. Consequently, life expectancy was low.
Demographic transition (1900-1975): The birth rate declined smoothly and discontinuously due to the shift from a rural to an urban and industrial society, the decreasing influence of religion, and improved birth control. It can be subdivided into:
1920s: Birth rate increased due to economic recovery.
1930-1956: Decline due to the crisis of 1929, the Civil War, and the post-war period.
1956-1965: Recovery due to the delayed baby boom and the economic development of the autarkic regime.
1965-1975: Reduction due to the culmination of the rural exodus and housing problems.
Mortality declined significantly and steadily (except for the 1918 flu pandemic and the Civil War) due to advances in medicine and health (vaccines, antibiotics, improved hygiene), increased life expectancy (better nutrition, education, and culture), and a decrease in infant mortality. Vegetative growth was high.
Current demographic regime (from 1975): Characterized by low birth and death rates, resulting in low natural growth. The birth rate has declined since 1975. Two periods can be distinguished:
1975-1998: Sharp decline in births due to the economic situation (delayed marriage age due to the 1975 crisis, the precariousness of work, high housing prices, etc.), and a change in mentality (less religious influence, the decriminalization of contraceptives and abortion, and the greater incorporation of women into the workforce).
From 1998: Births increased due to immigration, but this recovery is expected to be transient.
Mortality remains low due to effective medicine and hygiene, fewer infectious diseases, improved child nutrition, and sufficient natural resources. Growth was low until 1998 and has since decreased slightly.
3-Territorial Imbalances in Natural Population Movement
Significant contrasts exist between autonomous communities due to different age structures. Causes:
Traditional: Distinct birth behaviors and differences in development and migration caused by the economy.
Current: New factors of economic development, the crisis of 1975, and immigration from abroad since 1995.
The most dynamic communities present higher birth rates, lower mortality, higher natural growth. These tend to have a younger demographic structure due to traditional behaviors (Andalusia, Murcia, Ceuta, and Melilla), internal migration (Madrid, Catalonia, and the Valencian and Balearic communities), or heavy foreign immigration.
Communities in demographic decline present lower birth rates, higher mortality, and low natural growth. They tend to have a very aged demographic structure due to out-migration (Galicia and the interior), the 1975 crisis (Cantabrian cornice), and lower foreign immigration.
Migration
1-Internal Migration
These are population movements within the country’s borders. We can differentiate:
Traditional internal migrations: From the last third of the 19th century until 1975. The main motivation was work. The flows were mainly unidirectional, from the countryside to the industrialized cities. The profile of the emigrant was a young and poorly qualified person. Types:
Seasonal and temporary migrations: Undertaken with the intention of returning. In some cases, they were seasonal displacements for agricultural work, and in others, temporary displacements to the city when there was no work in the field.
Rural exodus: Between 1900 and 1975. This was a long-term and definitive emigration from rural and backward areas of Galicia, the interior peninsula, and eastern Andalusia to Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Madrid, and later to the industrial areas of the Mediterranean coast, the Ebro valley, the Balearic Islands, and the Canary Islands. The aim was to improve the quality of life. Four stages can be distinguished:
First third of the 20th century: Moderate volume, due to excess workers in the countryside. The exodus was mainly to Madrid, the Basque Country, and Barcelona, which offered jobs in their industries and promoted public works.
Civil War and post-war period: Stagnation due to shortages in cities and a reduction in the supply of work caused by destruction and the autarky of the Franco regime.
1950-1975: Achieved the highest volume of demographic growth thanks to the crisis of traditional agriculture due to mechanization, the industrial sector, tourism, and construction. The exodus was mainly directed to large cities.
From 1975: The decline of the exodus. With the 1975 crisis, the old industrial immigration centers lost their attractiveness, and the migration balance decreased significantly. Emigration decreased, and net migration outflows increased. After the crisis, technical advances helped reduce the exodus from the countryside, and development policies in backward areas were implemented. Currently, there is a return of immigrants, a very low rural exodus, and emigrants come from very isolated and agricultural areas and go to the main centers of activity in their own province.
Consequences of traditional internal migrations:
Demographic: They are responsible for imbalances in the distribution of the population and cause the aging of rural populations and the rejuvenation of urban populations.
Economic: Initially, they allowed for a greater density of resources in rural areas, increasing productivity. In cities, immigration caused problems of land, housing, and service equipment.
Social: There were problems of assimilation, as the rural culture was very traditional compared to the urban one. Integration did not occur until the next generation.
Environmental: The abandoned areas deteriorated the most traditional ecosystems. In large cities, accelerated growth caused atmospheric and acoustic pollution.
Current internal migrations: From 1975, another cycle began. The motivations are mixed (work, return to the place of origin, etc.), with multidirectional flows (greater diversity of origin and destination). They do not only go to large cities and do not only come from rural areas. They tend to go to nearby places. The profile of the emigrant is diverse. Types:
Labor migrations: The profile of the emigrant is a young adult, often from a former emigration zone, from an industrialized city or a declining urban center, and is aimed at a center of greater economic dynamism, generally nearby.
Migrations to other regions have decreased, with positive balances in immigration areas and the Mediterranean and Ebro valleys (except Barcelona and Zaragoza). Many emigrated from ancient provinces, with positive balances in good economic times and negative balances in bad times. Meanwhile, old areas have a negative immigration balance, such as Madrid, Barcelona, and Bizkaia, and traditional provinces maintain their emigration trend (Ávila, Zamora, Burgos, etc.).
Intra-regional and intra-provincial migrations have increased thanks to new provincial activity centers promoted by the development of autonomous competences.
Migrations have changed from intra-municipal in large urban areas to smaller and rural areas.
Migrations of foreigners, who move around the country with fewer family ties, looking for better jobs, tend to go to the Mediterranean coast and Andalusia.
Residential migrations: These are led by young people seeking affordable housing and a better environment. They migrate from the central city to its periphery or from a central city to cheaper neighboring cities of smaller size.
Return migrations: These are the returns of young people from seasonal migrations, of retired people to their place of origin, or of people who leave the city to go to rural areas.
Habitual movements: These are commuting movements for work and leisure, such as tourism and weekend movements.
Consequences of current internal migrations:
Labor migrations cause demographic and economic imbalances in the interior regions of the autonomous communities and provinces.
Intra-urban residential migrations cause the aging of the central urban areas. Migrations to smaller or rural cities cause social changes in the way of life.
Return migrations cause the aging of the areas where the emigrants settle in retirement. The arrival of young people to sparsely populated areas maintains sports activities.
Labor and commuting movements cause circulation problems in the accesses to large cities. In the receiving areas, there is an increase in income due to entertainment.
2-External Migration
These are population movements outside the country’s borders.
Transoceanic emigration: Mainly directed to Latin America and secondarily to the USA, Canada, and Australia. In many cases, it was permanent and assisted. There were also temporary migrations for work on infrastructure construction and agricultural work. Different stages:
First stage of increase: From the mid-19th century to 1914. There was an increase in emigration to America, despite the conquest, due to the need for these countries to repopulate, exploit their economic resources, and build infrastructure. Spanish assisted emigration met these needs. Spain imposed obstacles limiting the emigration of young people under 3 years of age to avoid conscription. The emigrants were mainly from Galicia, Asturias, and the Canary Islands, and their main destinations were Argentina (for agricultural work in the pampas), Cuba (sugar plantations), and Brazil (coffee plantations). The profile of the emigrant was a young, single, and low-skilled male.
First stage of crisis: 1914-1945. There was a decline in emigration due to the insecurity created by World War I, the economic crisis of 1929, the Spanish Civil War, and the post-war period, which created difficulties for emigration abroad due to the autarky of the moment.
Second stage of increase: 1945-1960. There was a recovery after Spain was allowed to leave freely, the international situation improved, and relations between Spain and the USA improved. The predominant origin of the emigrant continued to be Galicia and the Canary Islands, and the Asturian emigration declined due to the steel industry in the area. The preferred destinations were Venezuela (oil), Argentina (family reunification), and Brazil (industry). The profile of the emigrant changed to a family type with a higher level of qualification.
Second stage of crisis: From 1960. There was a decline due to the start of the decline of the Latin American economy and competition with emigration to Europe. Currently, the numbers are very low, and returns predominate.
Emigration to Europe: Different stages:
First stage: Until the mid-20th century. Emigration was scarce and seasonal. People from the countryside, especially from the Levant, emigrated to France. There were also refugees from the Civil War. This stage ended with World War II.
Second stage: Between 1950 and 1973. This stage was one of the greatest increases (except for 1964 and 1968, thanks to a Spanish development plan). The greater part of permanent emigration was due to the great economic recovery in Europe after World War II and the lack of labor in those countries due to the war. The strong Spanish demographic growth, the surplus of the agrarian population, and the bad outputs of the Spanish industry encouraged emigration. The preferred destinations were France, Germany, and Switzerland. The profile of the emigrant was a young, low-skilled adult, from all over Spain (mainly Andalusia and Galicia), and who took on low-skilled jobs.
Third stage: From 1973. There was a decline due to the great strike and the crisis in Western Europe. Emigrants returned; now, migration to Europe is at low levels. There is only a temporary emigration of Andalusian and Galician men to work in the French and Swiss agricultural or construction industries.
Consequences of external migrations:
Demographic: The Spanish population decreased, and there was greater inequality in its distribution.
Economic: It was positive in terms of decreased unemployment and the growth of the currency, as well as the money that the emigrants sent back. It negatively affected investments, as they were concentrated in developed areas and not in the areas of origin of the emigrants.
Social: The emigrants did not know the language or customs of the countries where they were. The bad living conditions after the 1975 crisis meant that many Spaniards had to return without any qualifications and with problems finding work in Spain.
Current external emigration: Spain is no longer a country of emigration due to the better standard of living, the greater training of the workforce, and the competition in the destination cities from immigrants from less developed countries who are willing to work for lower wages than national workers.
3-Foreign Immigration
In recent years, Spain has been receiving a large number of immigrants. They can be classified as naturalized (who are Spanish citizens after living in the country for several years), legal (who have a residence permit and maintain their nationality), and illegal (who are not registered and are very difficult to count). The causes of this wave of immigration are:
On the Spanish side: The need for labor after the economic development of 1995 (especially in low-skilled jobs) and certain regularization measures for illegal immigrants. In addition, Spain’s proximity to Africa makes it an entry point to Europe for Africans, and the historical and cultural ties attract Latin American immigrants. The good weather also attracts immigrants from central and northern Europe.
On the immigrants’ side: Both economic reasons (work, business, etc.) and political reasons (persecution in their country, lack of freedoms, etc.).
The origin of immigrants, which was dominated by Europe in 1996, has given way to the predominance of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Their favorite destinations are communities with large urban service centers (Catalonia, Madrid, Andalusia, etc.). The profile of the immigrant is variable: it can be a retired person with a high purchasing power who appreciates the Mediterranean climate, an adult looking for work or business, or a young person with economic or political motivations who takes on low-skilled jobs.
Consequences of immigration:
Demographic: Immigrants have contributed decisively to demographic growth, which would not exist due to natural growth.
Economic: Immigration increases the active population, performs the hardest and least well-paid jobs, and increases the GDP. It is also related to a loss of competitiveness due to downward pressure on wages and the fact that immigrants send their money to their countries of origin.
Social: There are emerging xenophobic and racist attitudes from a minority of the population, who claim that immigrants consume social resources, increase competition for jobs, and threaten national identity.
Many immigrants suffer harsh working conditions and exploitation, live in poor conditions, and are blamed for various social problems such as crime, prostitution, and begging. Many accuse the lack of integration due to cultural, linguistic, and religious differences.
4-Remaining Vocabulary
-Demography: The science that quantitatively analyzes population data obtained from different demographic sources.
-Census: An individualized count of the population of a country at a specific time.
-Municipal register: A register of the residents of a municipality.
-De facto population: The set of people residing in each municipality at the time of the census or municipal register.
-De jure population: The set of people legally residing in a municipality at the time of the census or municipal register.
-Population density: The relationship between the population of an area and its surface area in km². The formula is population / surface area in km².
-Natural movement: The growth or decline of a population due to natural causes, that is, births and deaths.
-Demographic regimes: The stages of the demographic transition.
-Malthusianism: An ideological current that proposed a voluntary reduction in births.
-Migration: Population movements in space.
-Emigration: The departure of the population from its place of origin.
-Immigration: The arrival of the population at a destination.
-Net migration: The balance between immigration and emigration (net migration = immigration – emigration).
-Assisted emigration: The departure of Spaniards to work abroad with public support. The state offered jobs in the receiving countries and recruited workers from the employment demand list.
-Real population growth: Obtained by adding the natural growth and the migration balance.
-Population structure: Its composition by sex, age, and economic activity.
-Masculinity rate: (Number of men / Number of women) x 100.
-Femininity rate: (Number of women / Number of men) x 100.
-Labor force: The set of people aged 16 or over who supply labor for the production of goods and services or who are available to do so.
-Inactive population: The population that is not working or available to work for pay.
-Activity rate: The percentage of the active population.
-Unemployment rate: The percentage of the unemployed with respect to the total active population (unemployment rate = (unemployed / active population) x 100).
-Dependency rate: The relationship between the working population and the dependent population (dependency rate = dependent population / working population).