Population Dynamics: Trends and Transitions in Rich and Poor Countries
Population Dynamics: Trends and Transitions
Evolution of the Population in Rich Countries
Phase of Long-Demographic Stability (Until Mid-17th Century)
Until the mid-17th century, the population increased very slowly. Families used to have an average of five children, but many died during their first year. Crops were unsafe, and famine, epidemics, and wars were raging. Life expectancy was around 40 years.
Phase of Demographic Revolution – Population Increase (Mid-17th Century)
The Industrial Revolution began in the mid-17th century. Famines started to disappear due to increased food production and improved hygiene processes. Mortality rates diminished considerably, while birth rates remained high, leading to a population increase. During the 18th century, this demographic revolution, known as the “white explosion,” fueled European expansion to America.
Phase of Birth Rate Descent (20th Century)
Mortality continued to drop in the 20th century due to the use of vaccines and improved infant care. New causes of mortality emerged, related to lifestyle changes, the desire for higher living standards and consumption, and increased education.
Evolution of the Population in Poor Countries
Long Demographic Stability
This phase is characterized by high birth and mortality rates.
Descent of Mortality (20th Century)
The decline in mortality in poor countries during the 20th century was less significant than in rich countries. Aid from rich countries, which provided medicines, played a role.
Deceleration of Population Growth (20th Century)
Experts initially predicted accelerated population growth. However, growth is now very low due to a general slowdown in the birth rate and a decrease in fertility. Differences persist between rich and poor countries.
Population in Rich Countries
The main feature is the aging process, caused by:
- Decrease in the birth rate and decline in fertility. Reasons include the challenges of balancing work and family life, the high cost of raising children, and access to contraception.
- Higher life expectancy due to factors such as better nutrition, improved medical care, and advancements in sanitation.
Population in Poor Countries
The main characteristic is the high birth rate:
- The population is young and growing. Children have always been considered an asset for families, providing support and care for parents in their old age.
Population Dynamics
Vegetative Growth
Vegetative growth is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. It requires data on birth and mortality rates.
- Birth Rate (BR): The number of births per 1,000 people in a given territory (expressed as a percentage).
- Fertility Rate (FR): The number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (typically 15-49 years).
- Mortality Rate (MR): The number of deaths per 1,000 people in a given territory (expressed as a percentage).
Migration
Migration refers to the movement of people from one place of residence to another. There are two types of migration:
- Emigration: The departure of inhabitants from a territory.
- Immigration: The arrival of new inhabitants to a territory.
The difference between immigration and emigration is the net migration rate.
Formulas
- Birth Rate (BR) = (Number of births in a year / Total population) x 1000
- Fertility Rate (FR) = (Number of births in a year / Number of women aged 15-49) x 1000
- Mortality Rate (MR) = (Number of deaths in a year / Total population) x 1000
- Natural Increase = Birth Rate – Mortality Rate
Demographic Transition in Spain
The Spanish Model
The Spanish population has followed the demographic transition model observed in other European countries. However, Spain’s transition started later but responded to similar factors:
- In the early 20th century, the population was characterized by high birth and mortality rates, resulting in demographic stability.
- Throughout the 20th century, mortality began to decline, but crises like the catastrophic flu epidemics and the Civil War slowed this decrease. The difference between birth and death rates led to population growth.
- From 1975 onwards, the birth rate declined dramatically. Spain, with a long life expectancy and one of the lowest birth rates in the world, entered a process of aging.
Today, Spain has a population of 45 million, with 4.5 million being foreigners. These immigrants maintain higher birth rates.
Positive Factors of Immigration
Immigration has been a decisive factor in population growth in Spain, especially between 2004 and 2005. Migrant workers contribute to the social security system, helping to fund pensions. They also provide a source of affordable labor.
Emigration from Spain
Historically, emigration from Spain was driven by the need to find work.
Emigration to America (19th and 20th Centuries)
In the 19th century, steamboats facilitated the movement of a large number of people to America. This trend continued during the first half of the 20th century until it was reduced by the economic crisis.
Emigration to Europe (20th Century)
The 20th century saw labor migration towards wealthier European countries. The agrarian and industrial economic crises in Spain fueled this external migration, coupled with increasing unemployment in Europe and stricter emigration laws enacted by governments.
Internal Migration within Spain (20th Century)
Internal migration within Spain began in the early 20th century, with people moving to Catalonia and the Basque Country. From 1950 onwards, migration intensified towards Barcelona, Madrid, and other industrial centers. This massive internal migration led to an aging population in rural areas, while the host cities experienced industrial growth.
Origin and Composition of Immigration to Spain
- Retirees: Northern Europeans seek Spain’s pleasant climate and affordable living costs for retirement.
- High-Wage Professionals: Individuals in the artistic and cultural sectors, often from the European Union, come to Spain for temporary or permanent work opportunities.
- Political Refugees: People persecuted for religious or ethnic reasons seek asylum in Spain.
- Emigrants from Poor Countries: Individuals from developing countries migrate to Spain in search of better and more dignified living conditions.