Spain’s GDP Per Capita Surge (1939-1973)
Spain’s GDP Per Capita (1939-1973): An Economic Transformation
1. Description
This simple linear graph illustrates the evolution of an economic indicator, GDP per capita, representing the value of goods and services produced relative to population size in Spain. The period covered (1939-1973) encompasses virtually the entire Franco dictatorship. The horizontal axis displays the years, while the vertical axis shows the amounts in constant 1980 pesetas (at intervals of 50,000), eliminating the effects of inflation for accurate data comparison.
The graph shows a general upward trend: GDP per capita starts at approximately 90,000 pesetas in 1939 and reaches 340,000 pesetas in 1973, nearly quadrupling the value. However, growth isn’t uniform; three distinct phases are visible: 1939-1951, 1951-1959, and 1959-1973.
2. Interpretation
2.1. The Stagnation Phase (1939-1951)
The first phase (1939-1951) reflects a stagnation of the Spanish economy, with GDP per capita remaining around 100,000 pesetas. Several factors contributed to this:
- The aftermath of the Civil War, including widespread destruction.
- Lack of gold and foreign currency reserves.
- Decline in overall production.
- Unfavorable international situation: World War II (until 1945) followed by the international isolation of the Franco regime.
Due to these factors and the nationalist ideology of the regime, an autarkic economic model (self-sufficiency with national resources) was implemented. The state controlled foreign trade and promoted domestic industry through the creation of the National Institute of Industry (INI) in 1941. Throughout the 1940s, the situation remained dire, with rationing of basic commodities due to severe shortages. The low purchasing power of the Spanish population further explains the lack of economic growth.
2.2. The Shift Towards Growth (1951-1959)
Between 1951 and 1959 (second phase), a change in trend is observed: GDP per capita increases from 100,000 to 150,000 pesetas (a 50% increase). This was influenced by changes in the international situation:
- The Marshall Plan in Europe stimulated economic development after World War II.
- The onset of the Cold War led to the end of Spain’s isolation and its gradual entry into international organizations.
- Cooperation agreements with the USA in 1953 provided significant economic aid in exchange for the use of military bases.
2.3. The Era of Developmentalism (1959-1973)
From 1959 onwards, the growth rate of GDP per capita accelerated significantly, rising from 150,000 pesetas to approximately 340,000 pesetas in 1973. This third phase is known as the era of developmentalism. The previously ineffective economic autarky was abandoned.
Progressive Spanish indebtedness led to borrowing from international organizations, which demanded a more open economic policy with less state intervention. The 1959 Stabilization Plan and the Economic and Social Development Plans (between 1964 and 1973) were launched. Significant foreign contributions also fueled growth: technology, investments, foreign exchange remittances from emigrants, and tourism.
2.4. Demographic Factors
It’s important to note the strong population growth (baby boom) during this last phase, which somewhat smooths the graph’s slope. The GDP per capita indicator links the production of goods and services with the number of inhabitants. Logically, as the population increases, the per capita figures tend to be lower. Therefore, the graph doesn’t fully reflect the increase in production, as it is distributed among a larger population. The Spanish population grew from approximately 26 million in 1940 to 34 million in 1970.