Spanish Population: Trends, Structure, and Future Projections

Posted on Dec 19, 2024 in Geography

**Real Growth**

We define real growth as the actual growth of a population, taking into account both natural and migratory movements. Since 1998, we have experienced a new upward trend, and the Spanish population has increased by 6.1 million people, with the current population exceeding 46 million.

**Uneven Spatial Distribution**

Population density is the demographic indicator that relates the population to the space it occupies. The Spanish population density is 90.9 inhabitants per km2. However, this is an indicator that masks strong contrasts, as there are autonomous regions with much higher densities and others with densities below the mean. The basic feature of the distribution of the population in Spain is the inequality that is specified in a densely populated periphery and a very unpopulated interior, with the exception of Madrid.

**The Future of the Spanish Population**

Population projections are estimates of the evolution of demographic indicators in the future. They aim to determine the future needs of a population. Eurostat predicts that by 2060, Spain will have about 52 million inhabitants. This population increase would result in a largely aging population.

  • In connection with the birth rate, it can be seen that since 1999 there has been growth, largely driven by the immigrant population.
  • With regard to mortality, it is expected to increase, given the progressive aging of the population. Life expectancy will continue to grow due to potential medical progress. Male mortality will continue.
  • Migration will remain stagnant at very low levels, while the dynamics of migration are uncertain due to the small number of annual quotas for the admission of foreign workers and the stage of economic stagnation that began in 2008.
  • Regarding age groups, the proportion of young people will continue to fall, while seniors will gain weight in the total population.
  • It seems that the activity rate will increase further in the coming years due to the gradual incorporation of women into the labor market.

**Spanish Population Structure**

The structure of the population analyzes its features according to different criteria: biological structure, economic structure, and levels of education.

**Biological Structure**

This analyzes the population by sex and age of residents:

  1. Sex Structure

    The composition of the population by gender is quantified from the sex ratio. For biological reasons, more boys are born than girls, a ratio of 105 boys per 100 girls. The figures are balanced in adulthood, and there is a very marked predominance of women at older ages.

  2. Age Structure

    This is studied based on three age groups: young (between 0 and 14 years), adults (15 to 64 years), and elderly (aged 65 years and over). To know the degree of aging of a population, an aging index is calculated. The index of the Spanish population is 16.5, which indicates that it is clearly an aging population. The causes are the great longevity of the Spanish population and falling fertility.

    • The proportion of the young population has decreased.
    • Adults are the majority group, and their number is growing.
    • The elderly are a growing group as a result of increased life expectancy. The communities most affected by aging are those affected by the rural exodus, which are concentrated in the interior and north of the peninsula.

    Aging is a problem for society and the government, as it has implications affecting the entire population:

    • In economic terms, it is questioning the maintenance of the current pension system and its viability in the future.
    • At the level of care, there is a clear deficit of facilities for the elderly, which requires a considerable investment effort.
    • On the psychological level, society needs to respond to the emotional needs of a growing older population.

**The Spanish Population Pyramid in 2008**

It displays all the characteristics of a developed country with an aging population.

  • Regarding sex, there are more male children than female. From the age range of 40-44 years, the figures are balanced, and from 55 years, there is an increasing advantage of women relative to men.
  • With regard to the structure by age groups, the following trends are observed:
    • The youth group experiences a narrowing towards the base, which indicates strict birth control. In the group of 0-4, a slight increase is seen due to the family model of immigrant families.
    • Adults are the most numerous age group. The 65-69 age range has a shorter bar, explained by the lower birth rate during the Civil War and the early postwar years. Intervals 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49 are slightly wider because of the baby boom.
    • In the elderly group, there is a progressive decrease in numbers due to death.