Understanding Rural Movement: Demographic Transition Explained
The Evolution of Rural Movement
Demographic transition is a model that explains the shift in population growth through four phases: the old demographic regime, the first transition, the second transition, and the modern demographic regime.
The Old Demographic Regime
In Europe and Spain, the rural society predominated until the end of the 18th century. The population was characterized by slow vegetative growth, with a high number of births offset by a high mortality rate due to epidemics, war, hunger, and a generally low standard of living.
The economy was primarily agricultural. In times of good harvests, the population grew; in times of bad harvests, hunger and disease increased, affecting a malnourished population more severely.
Malthus theorized that population grows geometrically while food production grows arithmetically.
The Demographic Transition
Starting in the late 18th century, coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, many countries experienced a change in demographic regime. During the demographic transition, the population increased due to high birth rates coupled with declining mortality rates resulting from hygienic and medical advances and improved nutrition.
In Spain, catastrophic mortality and periods of starvation delayed mortality control until the end of the 19th century. Spain’s mortality rate remained above 30%, which, combined with overseas migration, significantly reduced the population.
During the early 20th century, Spain experienced its authentic demographic transition. Mortality control, achieved through improved sanitation, smallpox vaccination, and increased food production, allowed for a reduction in mortality. This, along with a high birth rate, enabled the Spanish population to grow beyond 18 million.
This natural growth was affected by specific events such as the 1918 influenza epidemic and the Spanish Civil War. The Civil War caused an imbalance between the male and female populations, leading to a decline in the birth rate.
From the 1950s onward, the mortality rate did not exceed 10%, while the birth rate, which had remained stagnant since the Civil War, began to grow, settling at very high values. The period from the late 1950s to the 1960s, known as the Spanish Baby Boom, was the moment of greatest population growth in Spanish history.
The Modern Demographic Regime
The 1960s marked the end of the demographic transition in Spain. This transition had ended in other European countries in the early 1950s, but it occurred 20 years later in Spain.
From that time onward, the Spanish birth rate and fertility began to decline.
The mortality rate remained below 10%, fluctuating only slightly due to the progressive aging of the population, which caused a slight increase in mortality.
During the 1970s and 1980s, population growth remained constant due to the arrival of immigrants and the return of Spanish emigrants.