Understanding Spain’s Population Dynamics: A Demographic Analysis
Understanding Spain’s Population Dynamics
Sex Structure
Note the numerical superiority of males at birth, having the greatest length of the bottom bar (0-4 years). The sex ratio is the number of males multiplied by 100, divided by the number of females. There are always more male births (about 105 boys for every 100 girls). This numerical superiority at birth and growth through immigration indicates the time when the strength of both sexes are matched (in middle age). Finally, there is a predominantly female population due to the increased life expectancy of women. This is more noticeable now because, traditionally, many women died in childbirth or postpartum. It is also due to stronger biological factors and lifestyle variations, such as lower exposure to risk factors for death, and migrations often involving more men.
Age Structure
This is determined by age groups: young (0-14), adults (15-64), and elderly (65+). The youth index is calculated as (0-14 population) * 100 / total population. The age index is calculated as (65 and over population) * 100 / total population. A population is considered young when the percentage is greater than 35% and aged if it is greater than 12%. Structural aging is evident as the young represent a low percentage (14.35), and the elderly are far above (16.57).
The causes of aging are:
- Low birth rates since 1975
- Increased life expectancy
- Emigration from past eras
These are partially compensated by recent immigration. The deceleration and increased economic expenses for pensions, health, and elderly care affect the viability of the welfare state.
Pyramid Shape
- Triangular (1900): Indicates a young population (over 35% young and under 5% old). The base is wide due to high birth rates, and the population rapidly declines towards the top due to high mortality rates and low life expectancy.
- Bell (1970): Indicates an adult population (young people between 25% and 35%, and elderly between 5% and 12%). The base is moderate because birth rates have been smoothly decreasing, still allowing for generational replacement. The population slowly decreases towards the top due to decreasing mortality rates. There is an effective accumulation of adults and a not very high percentage of elderly.
- Urn (2008): Indicates an aging population. The base is narrow due to very low birth rates. The percentage of elderly is high due to increased life expectancy.
Demographic Events
Indicate inflows and outflows with repercussions on historical events such as wars, catastrophes, baby boom, etc.
Ages 0-14
The pyramid stance is slightly higher in the 0-4 age group due to a slight increase in birth rates in recent years, primarily related to immigration. It is projected that in the future, generations will adapt to the modern demographic regime and will have fewer children.
Ages 15-34
This is clearly a regressive pyramid, due to the decrease in birth rates since the 1970s when entering a modern population regime. The following factors explain the decrease in birth rates:
- Changes in mentality: delayed marriage age, especially due to late entry into the workforce, shortening the woman’s fertile period. Other causes, such as precarious labor contracts or housing prices, also influence this fact.
- Religious beliefs, which are pro-natalist.
- Rural exodus and the transition from a rural society to an urban society. In rural areas, children represent an investment. Today, they represent a considerable economic burden, in addition to attempts to have a better quality of life at the expense of having fewer children.
- The incorporation of women into the workplace.
- Improving people’s cultural level has led to mechanisms to know and exercise birth control.
- Anti-natalist policies after Franco’s death, stressing the legalization of contraception and the introduction of legal abortion.
Ages 35-64
The pyramid gets narrower. Wider segments correspond to those born in the 60s and 70s (from 30 to 50 years), a period known as the baby boom and characterized by a high birth rate. The baby boom was due to the Spanish economic development these years after the previous autarkic period. In addition, this group sees its population increased at present by the arrival of immigrants to Spain.
Ages 65+
It begins with a narrowing in the segment of 65-69 years. It is called the “hollow generation,” born during the Civil War, as fertility was greatly reduced during the war. Subsequently, the pyramid is reduced to the summit due to mortality. However, the highlight of this group is its high number, which causes aging in Spain today. This is due to increased life expectancy in Spain, currently around 77 years for men and 83 for women.
Increased life expectancy is associated with decreased mortality, especially catastrophic and child mortality, because of:
- Health and medical advances, especially antibiotics, vaccines, and especially the improvement of public and private hygiene.
- Improving the diet, coupled with a better quality of life.
- The increase in cultural and educational level has led to intensifying prevention.
All these factors have caused an aging of the Spanish society.