Understanding the Problem of Induction: Habit, Experience, and Knowledge
The Problem of Induction
Can we be certain that past experiences will repeat in the future? What is the basis of our predictive knowledge? Does it stem from relations of ideas or matters of fact?
Predictive knowledge, a matter of fact, arises from experience. The idea that “the future conforms to the past” relies on experience, yet experience itself depends on this assumption. How can we be sure when experience has often disappointed us?
Psychological Explanation of Induction
According to Hume, our belief that the future will resemble the past is a habit, an inevitable and instinctive habit ingrained in human nature for adaptation and survival.
Philosophical Analysis of Induction
Some interpret Hume’s analysis of induction as skepticism towards empirical knowledge, suggesting that Hume denies the possibility of grounding all science. Hume reduces our understanding of matters of fact to habit, a behavior that could be compared to that of animals. For example, a child who feels pain when touching a flame will avoid doing so again, expecting a similar effect from a similar cause. This understanding is instinctive. However, Hume argues that while reasoning leads us to expect similar effects from similar causes, experience has its own logic, independent of deductive reasoning, unlike mathematics.
Hume establishes an epistemological scale where mathematics holds the highest certainty, followed by empirical evidence, and finally, probabilities. The degree of certainty in our knowledge is determined by the degree of evidence provided by experience. Empirical knowledge lacks a rational basis but has a reasonable foundation. For instance, an intelligent person, given an unfamiliar object, cannot determine its causes or effects without experience.
The repetition of an action creates a tendency to repeat it, not through reasoning, but through habit. Habit is the great guide of human life. It makes us expect future events similar to those of the past. Without habit, we would be ignorant of matters of fact and unable to adapt means to ends. Nature has instilled in us an instinct that guides us correctly, though we may not know the methods it uses.
If there is doubt that the past is a rule for the future, experience would be useless, and no inference or conclusion could be drawn.